@tante @pluralistic@mamot.fr
In the early 1980s, over eighty percent of national income went to labor. Now, that's less than seventy percent. This isn't peanuts: roughly calculated, that's a shift of €6,500 per worker per year, not to wages, but to shareholders and capital owners. Total wages have grown in line with the economy over the past two decades, but only because more people have entered the workforce. Per-employee compensation has lagged behind GDP growth by 35 percentage points since 2000: production has grown by 40 percent, while real wages per employee have grown by less than 10 percent. The tax base, the wage sum on which taxes are levied, has held up thanks to a growing working population. This compensation mechanism is already working less effectively due to the aging population.
What effect will AI have on this pattern? No one knows for sure. Predictions vary widely. But early signs are telling. Research on entry-level employees in the most AI-exposed professions already shows employment declines of fifteen to sixteen percent. A large-scale Danish study of eleven occupational groups shows that two years after the widespread adoption of AI, wages and hours worked have barely risen. Productivity gains appear primarily as cost savings for companies, not as higher wages. The most likely scenario is not mass layoffs, but silent erosion: fewer new hires, higher output per employee, and a further decline in the labor market share. Perhaps gradually, but structurally.