acemaxx

So while the #SZ report emphasizes the external "China shock," I had like to frame it as the collision b/w #China 's industrial maturation and #Germany 's longstanding dependence on external demand, chart #SZ

#doodle
The Strait of #Hormuz is open again -
Why you should always look on the bright side of life …
#Iran is estimated to have laid about 80 #mines in the waterway’s main #shipping lanes ..

This is an interesting article b/c it combines two arguments that are often made separately: #China's industrial subsidies distort competition.
The #yuan #RMB is substantially #undervalued (19–30%), giving #Chinese exporters another artificial advantage, chart Brad Setser op-ed @Handelsblatt
https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/global-challenges/gastkommentar-global-challenges-die-eu-sollte-chinas-unfaire-waehrungspolitik-kontern/100234972.html

Investors have never been more eager to ratchet up their stock returns through #margin #loans and funds that amplify gains and losses. It may be a sign of trouble, chart @wsj.com
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-trillion-dollar-borrowing-binge-lifting-the-stock-market-to-risky-heights-8d0377f9

The gap b/w income cohorts continues to widen. The high-income segment, which drives ~40% of total consumption, remains remarkably resilient, bolstered by a $15trn increase in US household net worth and 6% #wage growth, chart @GoldmanSachs

Yet recent data suggests #Hollywood is in trouble. The end of the online streaming boom, cost-cutting mergers, and the 2023 strike by #actors and writers have left #Tinseltown feeling glum, chart @reuters.com https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-view/hollywood-ending-takes-sad-new-meaning-2026-06-23/

VW CEO Blume is under pressure to ⁠revive Volkswagen's fortunes as it battles tariffs, a costly shift to electric vehicles and growing competition from #Chinese automakers, perhaps its biggest threat. Major automakers have steadily lost ground to locally produced EVs in China – chart @reuters.com

#SpaceX bonds sell off days after #AI and rocket group’s $25bn debt deal – Note: #SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9bn on revenues of $18.7bn in 2025, chart @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/04f98e21-4ce7-43d2-8651-44557e12c31c

(note to self) #Germany itself engineered an internal #undervaluation after the late 1990s through #wage restraint. Germany suppressed wage growth. Inflation stayed below the ECB target. Germany became structurally cheaper than #France, #Italy and #Spain - chart Brad Setser op-ed @Handelsblatt
https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/global-challenges/gastkommentar-global-challenges-die-eu-sollte-chinas-unfaire-waehrungspolitik-kontern/100234972.html

The recent #supply shock does not by itself imply that the #eurozone is entering another prolonged inflationary episode, chart @ECB https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/stats/md/html/ecb.md2605~3c7ea02712.en.html

Europe and the Economic impact of #heatwaves
#Germany still lacks comprehensive solutions to manage heat-stress risk, chart @ING_Economics

#Greenland keeps attracting #investors it may not even want -
Donald Trump’s fixation on the territory has put it in an uncomfortable, if potentially lucrative, position, chart #Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-06-29/greenland-is-attracting-more-investors-does-it-even-want-them?srnd=phx-economics-v2

#TheEconomist is finally recognizing something that has been obvious for 20y. #Germany and the #euro area cannot complain about #China while pursuing exactly the same export-led strategy -chart @TheEconomist
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/25/global-imbalances-have-little-to-do-with-europes-industrial-woes

The number of IPOs in #Japan fell to a 15y low in the first 6-months of the year, a situation that is unlikely to improve in the short term due to a lack of start-ups that can quickly come to market, chart @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/5e016bbc-b09e-4423-a6fb-588abda72cf7

Der #China -Schock - Er trifft #Deutschland ins Herz, chart The gap is widening. Growth contributions of net exports to domestic GDP in percent @SZ
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/politik/china-arbeitsplaetze-wirtschaft-in-china-deutschland-e261869/

The 1Q 2026 US earnings season was one of the strongest in recent history, chart @GoldmanSachs

#Hormuz
The type of #mines set by #Iran in the #waterway remains unclear. If most are on the seabed, they will be more difficult to locate and destroy than cruder contact #mines - chart @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/a0739198-318c-4ae8-9953-ba88201edc45

The first chart on the falling foreign share of USTs outstanding gets a lot of attention but is incomplete without considering the second
chart: foreign UST holdings are still rising, they’re just not rising as fast as the US debt. chart @JPMorganAM

Market-implied #inflation expectations have fallen sharply with both 2y and 10y #inflation #swaps now below pre-conflict levels, chart @JPMorganAM

#Chinese manufacturers build #EVs for b/w 20 and 50% less than their European counterparts, reckons McKinsey. For a #Volkswagen costing roughly €30,000 to produce, that implies a gap of at least €6,000 per vehicle, chart @financialtimes.com https://www.ft.com/content/ccea8285-11f9-45c0-b642-1efe9ef0c1da

#Apple seeks to buy memory #chips from blacklisted #Chinese company – iPhone maker wants Trump administration to sign off on purchases to eases pressure from rising #semiconductor prices, chart @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb

#Volkswagen is considering shutting 4 #German factories and ramping up #job #cuts to as many as 100,000, chart @reuters.com https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-ceo-aims-cut-up-100000-jobs-next-years-manager-magazin-reports-2026-06-26/

Since the conflict in Iran, the 40-day correlation b/w bond yields and #oil prices has risen, with the two assets moving in lockstep, chart @JPMorganAM

Oh boy!
#VW #Volkswagen plans to cut up to 100,000 jobs and end production at four plants in #Germany in a significant acceleration of its cost-cutting plans as Europe’s largest #carmaker seeks to counter the rapid advance of #Chinese rivals, chart @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/d0760eaf-d345-4964-b2ae-f55f6dfd9a4a

Oh no, not that!
#water level index
European economy can’t catch a break – falling #Rhine levels are hitting fuel supply chains – chart @BloombergTV live

Just 2-weeks after Canadian PM Mark Carney announced he would allow limited #EV imports from #China, that country’s biggest auto exporter, Chery, held its first meetings in Canada with car dealers, chart @reuters.com
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-carmakers-rush-canada-practice-run-us-sales-2026-06-25/

re: #Apple price hikes #dram chips
Driven by massive #AI data center demand, component costs have quadrupled over the past year - chart #BloombergTV live

#BoJ Bank of #Japan releases its quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment on Wedn, with economists expecting gauges to hold more or less steady in positive territory, chart #Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-27/warsh-makes-debut-on-the-global-stage-with-the-class-of-2008?srnd=phx-economics-v2

#Apple announced sweeping, global price hikes across its Mac, iPad, home device, and Vision Pro lineups to offset unprecedented cost surges for #memory and #storage #chips - #BloombergTV live

On both forward and historical measures, the #tech - and #AI -heavy US and #Taiwan markets look expensive relative to most other major areas. In contrast, the #UK and Europe look cheap, notes @hakyungkim.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/e5aa937c-bc52-4973-bf21-bfb6afd1d95d

#UK #Burnham
Karen Ward diagnoses a demand problem and prescribes supply-side medicine. I would say that's not optimism — it's the same mistake, repeated over and over again, chart @JPMorganAM https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/andy-burnham-fix-uk-karen-ward-l6vjc/

Priority Technologies
#Book Review
Priority Technologies -Ensuring US Security and Shared Prosperity edited by Elisabeth B Reynolds and foreword by Simon Johnson, @mitpress.bsky.social April 21, 2026, London.
https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/priority-technologies

#ECB policymakers spending much of the week in Sintra will have key data releases: The last #euro area inflation estimate before their July decision scheduled for release on Wedn - chart #Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-27/warsh-makes-debut-on-the-global-stage-with-the-class-of-2008?srnd=phx-economics-v2

#UK #Burnham
Karen Ward @JPMorganAM is correctly identifying that "when the pie isn't growing we turn against each other." OK, agree. But then her policy prescriptions — cut welfare, appease markets, protect companies —
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/andy-burnham-fix-uk-karen-ward-l6vjc/

GS Research Team is not seeing the strong #wage growth that would likely be needed to generate sustained #inflation, with real wages contracting for the second month in a row as inflation has outpaced wage growth, chart @GoldmanSachs

(m-my man)
#SpaceX bond sale signals markets are in “bubble territory”, warns @ludovicsubran.bsky.social #Allianz CIO, chart @financialtimes.com
https://www.ft.com/content/40b0666b-8214-4162-a82b-d74ba464eabc?

Dylan Dittrich notes just how powerful sports have become as an asset class, pointing to the Ross-Arctos Sports Franchise Index to show some really eye-catching numbers, chart @yahoo.com https://michiganross.umich.edu/faculty-research/partnerships/ross-arctos-sports-franchise-index

Economists gather information on #inflation #expectations in a couple of main ways: through surveys and by tracking certain financial market transactions that are shaped by investors' projections of future inflation -chart @AtlantaFed.org
https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/inflation/2026/06/25/inflation-expectations-matter-a-lot-but-why

(market-implied changes for year-end policy rates)
#Traders fully price #Fed (white line) rate hike this year; #ECB (blue line) and #BoE (yellow line), chart #Bloomberg TV live