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Southeast Arizona is still on track to be quite busy over the next few days as a strong trough of low pressure along the West Coast makes its way through Arizona today into Tuesday. This system will interact with deep tropical moisture moving into the area from the south and southwest to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding concerns. Thereafter, dry conditions are forecast for the second half of next week. High temperatures will lower to 5-10 degrees below normal Monday through Wednesday, then warming back up to near normal late next week. Issued 2:14 AM MST, Mon Sep 28 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Forecast update Updated the Hydrology Seciton as of 300 PM. Issued 3:07 PM MST, Mon Sep 28 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

A moisture increase is expected from the southwest Sunday resulting in mid and high level cloud cover and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will move into the area from the south Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system moving in from the West Coast will interact with this moisture, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are then forecast for the second half of next week. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal today, lowering to 5-10 degrees below normal Monday through Wednesday, then warming back up to near normal late next week. Issued 2:54 AM MST, Sun Sep 27 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Moisture continues to increase from the southwest this evening resulting in mid and high level cloud cover and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will move into the area from the south Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system moving in from the West Coast will interact with this moisture, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain could lead to flooding across portions of southeast Arizona. Thereafter, dry conditions are forecast for the second half of next week. High temperatures will lower to 5-10 degrees below normal Monday through Wednesday, then warming back up to near normal late next week. Reissued 3:06 PM MST, Sun Sep 27 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Slight chances for rain showers and thunderstorms tonight. Drier air then overspreads southeast Arizona Friday and Saturday. Moisture moves back into the area late in the weekend and early next week, for a return of the chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal today, warming to slightly above normal over the weekend and then lowering several degrees below normal early to mid next week. Reissued 5:58 PM MST, Thu Sep 24 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Forecast update SPC RAP analysis shows a upper level convergence over the eastern half of Southeast Arizona, suppressing rain chances for the region. As result, clearer skies above. Yet, there is low pressure circulation spinning by Ajo/Yuma, producing the required divergence aloft for light to moderate rain showers. Model guidance shows the low will get knock out by the middle of the night and can produce a few showers across the area, but confidence is low. Therefore, chances for precipitation have been reduced for the night. Issued 5:58 PM MST, Thu Sep 24 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

Another chance for showers and thunderstorms today for areas of southeastern Arizona with the stronger thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of flash flooding. Drier air then overspreads southeast Arizona Friday and Saturday. Moisture moves back into the area late in the weekend into early next week, for a return of the chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal through Thursday, warming just above normal over the weekend and then lowering back below normal through the middle of next week. Issued 3:24 AM MST, Thu Sep 24 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Forecast update The upper pattern this morning is defined a trough of low pressure across the Intermountain West with a low centered over southern Idaho. The latest GOES precipitable water imagery indicated dry PWATs between 0.50 and 0.65 inches across the majority of Southeast Arizona, with higher values between 0.65 and 0.90 inches generally NE of Tucson in Graham/Greenlee counties. The trough axis of the larger scale trough extends south into northwest Arizona today, and was responsible for some weak showers and thunderstorms that developed near the White Mountains early this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will result in sunny skies across the majority of the area today. No updates necessary to the inherited forecast. Issued 8:45 AM MST, Sat Sep 19 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

Drier air across southeast Arizona will continue into Monday. Moisture then spreads back across portions of southeast Arizona next week for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal into the middle of next week. Issued 1:17 AM MST, Sat Sep 19 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Lingering showers this morning with a chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today, then be around normal Friday into early next week. Issued 3:19 AM MST, Thu Sep 17 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

A chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today, then be around normal Friday into early next week. Reissued 1:56 PM MST, Thu Sep 17 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Advisory (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

An active week ahead with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Elevated precipitation chances today with a Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Arizona. Daily high temperatures will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. Issued 3:04 AM MST, Mon Sep 14 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Forecast update Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona with some residual early morning shower and thunderstorm activity dissipating over Graham County at this time. Cumulus clouds are already starting to form which portends to an active day with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000 J/KG with dissipating CIN over the next few hours as daytime heating continues. Latest CAMs focus on locales from Tucson north and eastward for the highest storm chances this afternoon which is reasonable based on latest trends. Main concern will continue to be locally heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential with a secondary wind threat. Current forecast is in good shape. No updates this morning. See previous discussion for additional information. Issued 9:34 AM MST, Mon Sep 14 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 #azwx #tucsonwx

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially across Cochise county southeast of Tucson. Heavy rainfall will the primary hazard from storms today. An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected south of Tucson Friday, with a more typical isolated to scattered coverage of storms anticipated this weekend into next week. High temperatures will will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below normal. Issued 1:00 AM MST, Thu Sep 10 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: @tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx #azwx #tucsonwx

Recap: rainfall, past 24 hours 1.06" Italian Trap 0.87" White Tank 0.59" Bellota Ranch Road 0.51" Alamo Tank 0.43" Cienega Creek below I-10 0.24" Tanque Verde Creek at Chiva Tank 0.20" Dan Saddle 0.04" White Tail Campground 0.04" Pantano Wash at Vail 0.04" Green Mountain 11 of 89 gauges across the Tucson metro recorded rain. Washes running: Santa Cruz River: up 0.77 ft, peak 6 ft³/s Santa Cruz River: up 0.40 ft, peak 37 ft³/s Pantano Wash: up 0.38 ft, peak 18 ft³/s Pima County RFCD ALERT network · USGS See it happen? Reply with a photo or video. #azwx #tucsonwx

Expect scattered thunderstorms through Monday with storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall. After Monday storm chances begin to decrease. High temperatures will be around normal through much of the coming week. Issued 2:48 AM MST, Sun Aug 30 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TWC&issuedby=TWC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Active alerts: Flood Watch (@tucsonwxalerts@msto.cx) #azwx #tucsonwx

Recap: rainfall, past 24 hours 0.67" Hilltop Road 0.67" Avra Valley Air Park 0.55" Rancho Vistoso 0.47" Picture Rocks Community Center 0.47" Cargodera Canyon 0.47" Brawley Wash at Milewide Road 0.43" Mt Lemmon 0.43" Diamond Bell Ranch 0.39" Rillito Creek at La Cholla Blvd 0.39" Moore Rd at La Cholla Blvd 67 of 89 gauges across the Tucson metro recorded rain. Washes running: Rillito Creek At La Cholla Blvd: up 2.43 ft, peak 531 ft³/s Santa Cruz River: up 2.08 ft, peak 8 ft³/s Rillito Creek: up 1.61 ft, peak 307 ft³/s Pima County RFCD ALERT network · USGS See it happen? Reply with a photo or video. #azwx #tucsonwx